Israel says it has assassinated Ali Larijani, the powerful Iranian security chief whose death, if confirmed, will leave a serious hole in the heart of the regime.
It would mark an important tactical victory for U.S. President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as they seek to dislodge the country's clerical rulers, or at least bring them to heel.
And it also signals another major victory for Israeli intelligence, whose penetration of Iranian society has enabled it to locate and strike many of the regime's elite figures in the 12 Day War and the current conflict, not least Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei
Larijani has been prominent throughout the war so far, appearing most recently in public for the annual Quds Day celebrations in Tehran on Friday, regularly posting messages on social media.
The rhetoric was defiant and even taunting of the U.S. and Israel.
"Mr. Hegseth! Our leaders have been, and still are, among the people," Larijani said in a March 13 post on X, including a video of himself walking around the streets and shaking hands with Iranians on Quds Day. "But your leaders? On Epstein's island!"
The posts will now fall silent. In their place are questions about what Larijani's death means for the Iranian regime that he was so integral to.
Iran's Chief System Manager Removed
Ali Larijani was more than a symbolic figurehead or a frontline commander for the Iranian regime.
The 67-year-old is a vital coordinator operating in the regime's power center, a man who kept Iran’s sprawling, factionalized system functioning under extreme stress.
As secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, Larijani sat at the intersection of military planning, internal security, diplomacy, and the authority of the Supreme Leader.
In wartime, that made him indispensable, especially following the killing of Ali Khamenei and the reported incapacitation of his heir, Mojtaba Khamenei, whose condition and ability to make decisions are not fully known.
In the vacuum, Larijani emerged as a de facto center of gravity. He is highly experienced and a trusted ideological stalwart who can translate clerical authority into concrete decisions.
His assassination would leave an immediate operational gap, further disrupting decision-making at the very moment when speed, coordination, and discipline matter most to the regime's survival.
Regime's Internal Balance of Power Destabilized
Larijani’s power came from his ability to bridge Iran’s rival elite factions.
A former parliamentary speaker, nuclear negotiator, and member of a powerful clerical family, he commanded respect across the clerical establishment, the Revolutionary Guards, and the technocratic state.
That made him uniquely valuable in moments of crisis, when cohesion matters as much as ideology. If the regime is to survive the war, it will need to hold together, and a unifying figure within, like Larijani, is key to that.
Without Larijani, power is likely to tilt further toward the IRGC and security services, which wield their power through coercion rather than the kind of internal consensus required in the current emergency.
That shift could make the regime more aggressive and repressive in the short term, but also more brittle.
Iran has historically relied on figures like Larijani to prevent elite rivalries from spilling into open conflict. His absence increases the risk of factional infighting that could prove fatal for the ruling elite.
Internal Control Without Larijani
Larijani’s killing would also complicate the regime’s ability to manage unrest at home.
It is a task that becomes harder, not easier, as power concentrates in the security services, whose recent brutal crackdown on protests, which killed thousands, precipitated the war.
For years, Larijani, viewed as a pragmatist, functioned as a political referee who could arbitrate between the clerical establishment, the IRGC, and civilian institutions when internal tensions rose.
That role mattered well below the elite level because it also shaped decisions about how force was applied on the streets.
Without a somewhat moderating figure like Larijani, Iran’s internal control is likely to tilt even harder toward blunt repression.
The IRGC and Basij are effective instruments of coercion, but they are poorly suited to calibrating restraint, compromise, or de‑escalation.
History suggests that when political mediation disappears, the regime defaults to force. And force, over time, generates more resistance rather than compliance.
In a wartime environment marked by economic strain, casualties, and leadership uncertainty, the loss of a political balancer increases the risk that domestic unrest spirals faster and proves harder to contain.
The end result could be the death of the regime.
Iran’s Options Narrow in Post-Khamenei Era
Larijani was seen as a stabilizing figure during Iran’s uncertain leadership transition following the death of Khamenei on February 28.
While not a successor himself, he was capable of managing elite rivalries, maintaining continuity, and preserving the Islamic Republic’s core institutions during a generational shift.
His death would remove one of the last figures with the credibility to manage that transition quietly, as questions swirl around Mojtaba Khamenei's ability to lead the regime through the war and ensure its continued grip on power.
At a time when Iran needs flexibility, both to prosecute a war and to prevent internal fracture, Iran's leadership bench is thinning fast.
For Israel, targeting Larijani is a clear signal that it remains intent on dismantling Iran’s governing architecture, not just degrade its military capacity, even as the U.S. steers more towards the latter.
In Tehran, the challenge now is existential. The regime must prove the system it has built for five decades is more robust than its individual leaders, and can still function without one of its last universally respected power brokers.
If it cannot pass this test, Larijani’s assassination may come to be seen not as a single blow, but as a turning point in the regime’s unravelling.
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